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Machinery Pete: Surprise Harvest of Data

October 22, 2016

When used combine values took a hit at several auctions in mid- to late December 2015 I thought the trend would continue in 2016. That hasn’t really been the case, though. In fact, looking back over the past 18 months, it appears that period of a couple weeks was a blip or an outlier.

I track data day by day and quarter by quarter. If you exclude fourth quarter 2015, combine values have been flat since second quarter 2015. 

Most folks assume used combine values have been falling like a rock this year. Check out the data table below of recent auction prices on 450 hp to 470 hp combines and you’ll see that hasn’t been the case. For example, a 2013 Case IH 8230 with 576 engine hours sold for $227,000 at a March 17, 2016, farm auction in northwest Ohio. A 2014 Case IH 8230 with 317 engine hours sold for $265,800 via an online auction in Kansas on Feb. 24, 2016.

It gets really interesting when we dive deeper into the data. In 2014, when used values were falling sharply, the average auction price on a then two-year-old 2012 John Deere S680 combine dropped a whopping 26%. In 2015, the rate of value depreciation on a two-year-old 2013 John Deere S680 slowed to a 10.9% decline. This year, two-year-old 2014 John Deere S680 combines have seen their average 
auction price drop a mere 3% so far ($220,688 average auction price this year versus $227,500 in 2015).

If we focus on 2013 models, the average auction price on 2013 Case IH 8230s have fallen 7.4% this year ($171,470 versus $185,188 in 2015) and 2013 John Deere S680s have dipped 11.1% ($191,389 versus $215,185 in 2015). In 2014, I was seeing 15% to 25% drops in average auction prices across the board, so it’s much more stable now.

For example, a pair of 2014 John Deere S680s sold at a June 21, 2016, absolute consignment auction in west-central Illinois. They had 671 and 703 engine hours and sold for $240,000 and $252,500, respectively. 

In late 2015, I wrote 2016 would be a great year to upgrade into late-model used equipment. I still feel this way as we peer ahead to 2017. 

A quick look at shows 640 John Deere S680s and 220 Case IH 8230s for sale by dealers. Give your local dealer a call; there are some good deals to be had. 


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